Trump Takes Office Soon
Monday 2024 ceremonial congressional electoral vote count
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Recap:
Bitcoin outperformed as the leading sector in 2024. As 2024 wrapped it double digit equity index gains, we ended up not getting a technical “Santa Rally” in late December. We have been in a multi week pullback on equities now.
Powell has effectively reduced the amount of 2025 rate cuts that ended up taking the market out from it’s knees. Homebuilder stocks took a huge slap as investors were betting on outsized 2025 cuts to buoy housing.
Dallas Fed Mfg. Posted its first positive print a couple weeks ago, and most likely is pointing towards the end of the economic contraction in mfg., possibly housing as well. I do think we have been in a distorted recession the last year or so.
The key here is to see yields and the dollar stabilize. There can be many changes to the economic and market environment as Trump takes his second term.
Relevant Topics, News, and Data: Month of January:
MSFT to spend $80b on data centers
1/7 congressional electoral vote count
1/20 Inauguration
Debt ceiling resolution / Treasury General Account (TGA) spend-down
China Stimulus
Labor market data this week
There is a slight possibility yields have already priced in a trend change on unemployment. We had a huge change in continuing jobless claims last week. A relief in yields, and a stabilizing dollar can support equities.
Oil has finally reversed off the $68 WTI zone, and is rallying like I said weeks ago. It just took longer than expected. This is a great sign as economic activity could be picking up, or that China is about to reinvigorate it’s economy big time like they have been planning to do.
EOY reverse repo has had it’s typical whiplash of liquidity which should pour back into the markets this month. We just need that debt ceiling resolution by congress for that fiscal spending to continue.