Summer End
Liquidity to increase over the next 1-2 months
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While using an old challenge account,
Last Two Weeks: +5k (+15k overall the past three weeks)
+$10k on IWM weeklies
-$3.5k IWM weeklies
-$1k NVDA lottos
-$1k DELL lottos
Challenge Account: 2k to $236 (down from 4.7k portfolio high)
I probably ruined this challenge account, but the swing trade might be able to revive itself. I will deposit more cash at some point. Current swing trade is down 90%, but honestly could still play out.
Relevant Topics, News, and Data: Month of September (Quarter End Sept. 30th)
Wednesday: JOLTs
Thursday: ADP Nonfarm
Friday: NFP and Unemployment Rate
Second Week of Sept: 9th-13th
Tuesday: Presidential Debate
Wednesday: CPI
Third Week: 16th-20th
Tuesday: Retail Sales
Wednesday: Vixperation
Wednesday: FOMC
Wednesday: Trump Sentencing
This is going to be a very tough September as election tension grows while the summer low liquidity comes to an end.
I would love to see a bullish move up into Mid-September followed by a flat or negative close on the monthly candle. Keep in mind that this is also the last month of Q3.
Participants and Market are pricing in some type of rate cut in this upcoming FOMC meeting which could be a sell the news event. On top of that, the major political theater event of Trump will be occurring as well. We could even see a top in indexes a couple days prior to the 18th. Maybe retail sales marks the local top(hopefully a higher high on indexes.)
The increase of liquidity and traders coming back from summer might not be exactly what people want. It feels like a traffic jam situation to me.
Finally, I have spoken about the fact that I don’t think the market really cares who gets elected. It only cares that SOMEONE gets elected. Both parties will stimulate the economy, but in different methods.