Gearing up for 2H 2025
US Fiscal Stimulus loading
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Recap:
US equity indexes trend rally in a slower (lower velocity) manner compared to the extreme rally after the 90 day tariff pause in April. Summer low volume has started to kick in and ME tensions rise with Israel/Iran battle it out.
Relevant Topics, News, and Data: Month of June
Texas passes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill (SBR)
US steps into Iran with multiple raids on Nuclear Sites with Operation “Midnight Hammer” (6 bunker busters, fury of tomahawk missiles from submarines)
Public companies creating a bitcoin reserve spike
CRWV, CRCL IPO mania
GENIUS stablecoin (crypto) bill passes congress
Fed keeps rates unchanged and say indirectly “if there were no tariffs, we would have cut rates” aka lower tariffs, they will lower rates
Beginning talks of SLR rules changing for US Banking, early signs of deregulation in the banking sector
Fiscal Spending Bill target passage remains July 4th after 2 setbacks, August remains the tentative “run out of money at the treasury” time
TSLA robotaxi launch today 6/22
Earnings start this week. PMIs, Powell testifies to congress, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, and Finally PCE.
Iran will remain the geopolitical center stage event while tariff deals remain a possibility. The Hormuz straight must be sorted out after Iran threatens to close it this Sunday morning.