Certainty, Trade Deals, and The One Big Beautiful Bill
The end of Q2
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Recap:
US equity indexes Nasdaq and S&P500 set a higher high and new ATHs. Another “most hated rally” continues from the April lows when Trump said it was a good time to buy stocks.
Relevant Topics, News, and Data: Month of June
Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
End of Q2 on Monday…JPM down nearly $1B on their short calls via the JPM collar, they want the market to open red to unwind.
Spending bill gets proceeded to vote over the weekend, but held up by Schumer as he ordered the bill to be read out completely before debate and passage vote.
US China signed trade truce, yet to be finalized by Trump/Xi
PCE comes in slightly higher
Iran/Israel ceasefire awaiting a truce agreement
THE FED ACKNOWLEDGES THEY WOULD CUT RATES IF TARIFF UNCERTAINTY closes…aka close the deals
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD START INTERNAL BATTLES AS POWELL’S TERM NEARS AN END IN 2026. WHAT DOVE WILL BE APPOINTED?
PMI, Powell, and Labor Market Data…
This is a rate sensitive week! Note that unemployment rate is forecasted to tick higher. Yields should have a meaningful fall the next couple weeks.