BTC Halving Month
Sunday April 7th
Last Few Weeks: Challenge Account 6k to 110k (Started Late Oct. 2023)
With my current swing trade, I locked in about $38k on MARA, and $10k on unlisted altcoins deep in the weeds of crypto. These trades boosted the account balance from roughly 95k to 142k, but I had options expire worthless and took losses on CLSK commons shares on the past Friday bringing the account to 110k.
Relevant Topics, News, and Data:
Coinbase wins lawsuit on their tokens NOT being “securities” due to the fact that these products are based on blockchain CONTRACTs.
IBIT ETF has new wall street participants including Citadel.
Interest rates continue to stay elevated citing a strong economy.
GBTC selling pressure lowering as Genesis bankruptcy selling is over
Mr. 100 BTC buyer continues to buy aggressively everyday
BTC hashrate continuing to set new highs
Federal Reserve narrative continues to be WHEN are rate cuts while rates are in restrictive territory (Federal Funds Rate 5.25-5.50 versus CPI 3.2%, 10Y 4.4%, 2Y 4.7%)
AI bull run continues with large demand for chips
TGA: Treasury General Account
Yellen has done some small buybacks, and the account remains at range highs. There is plenty here to fund spending.
RRP: Reverse Repo Agreements
This liquidity is still ample for markets.
BTFP: Bank Term Funding Program
Where is this going? It used to match the S&P 500, but we are diverting. I heard there was another method for banks to get dollars for their underwater HTM (hold to maturity) assets?
Data this week: Summary and Comments Below
M: Kashkari 3 hours after the bell
T: 3Y auction
W: CPI before opening bell
TH: PPI / Jobs Data / 30Y auction mid-day / FOMC speakers
F: Mich. Inflation/Consumer Exp. data
All eyes on CPI that is forecasted to come in hotter YOY. The markets can easily find a bullish narrative on Core coming down though. I do think risk-on is still in full effect.