BTC Halving Month

Sunday April 7th

Last Few Weeks: Challenge Account 6k to 110k (Started Late Oct. 2023)

With my current swing trade, I locked in about $38k on MARA, and $10k on unlisted altcoins deep in the weeds of crypto. These trades boosted the account balance from roughly 95k to 142k, but I had options expire worthless and took losses on CLSK commons shares on the past Friday bringing the account to 110k.

Relevant Topics, News, and Data:

• Coinbase wins lawsuit on their tokens NOT being “securities” due to the fact that these products are based on blockchain CONTRACTs.

• IBIT ETF has new wall street participants including Citadel.

• Interest rates continue to stay elevated citing a strong economy.

• GBTC selling pressure lowering as Genesis bankruptcy selling is over

• Mr. 100 BTC buyer continues to buy aggressively everyday

• BTC hashrate continuing to set new highs

• Federal Reserve narrative continues to be WHEN are rate cuts while rates are in restrictive territory (Federal Funds Rate 5.25-5.50 versus CPI 3.2%, 10Y 4.4%, 2Y 4.7%)

• AI bull run continues with large demand for chips

TGA: Treasury General Account

Yellen has done some small buybacks, and the account remains at range highs. There is plenty here to fund spending.

RRP: Reverse Repo Agreements

This liquidity is still ample for markets.

BTFP: Bank Term Funding Program

Where is this going? It used to match the S&P 500, but we are diverting. I heard there was another method for banks to get dollars for their underwater HTM (hold to maturity) assets?

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Data this week: Summary and Comments Below

M: Kashkari 3 hours after the bell
T: 3Y auction
W: CPI before opening bell
TH: PPI / Jobs Data / 30Y auction mid-day / FOMC speakers
F: Mich. Inflation/Consumer Exp. data

All eyes on CPI that is forecasted to come in hotter YOY. The markets can easily find a bullish narrative on Core coming down though. I do think risk-on is still in full effect.