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Biden Dropout

Does the market front-run election seasonality?

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TraderHC
Jul 22, 2024
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Please link your account to access the premium discord channels

https://sidestack.io/traderhc

Last Week: I did not do much trading during opex. I lost a small bet on NFLX earnings.

Challenge Account: Currently running a swing trade in this account
2k to 4.6k

Relevant Topics, News, and Data:

  • Sunday, Biden drops out of election race

  • Tuesday: Existing Home Sales

  • Wednesday: PMIs and New Home Sales

  • Thursday: Durable Goods Orders

  • Friday: PCE

I want to highlight something from last Monday where Powell decided to address the weakening labor market. He said he will use monetary policy to address it. To me, that is a big deal to announce on a Monday morning during a “non-event” speaking event.

Also something to note greatly, Biden dropped out of the election race today. My big question is- Does the market front-run election seasonality now that Trump’s odds of winning has exponentially increased with a failed assassination on his life and opponent dropping out?

If we do get a multi week pullback, I think sometime in late august or september we could see markets bottom and rally.

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