A little bit of everything

Macro, FFR, Bonds, Stock Picking, and Bitcoin

Macro:

As I discussed in the last substack, I was mentioning the reason why markets rallied from March…BTFP and Liquidity Swap Lines.

Now compare these liquidity injections to previous scenarios below. At some point, shit hits the fan again and more drastic steps are taken.

Timing the black swan is easier said than done. I like to look at bonds for a better read…

(BTFP) Source: @FianceLancelot

Here is where we are at in the interest rate cycle. Technically we have been in the goldilocks period of the market (discussed in my Substack months ago). This is when rates peak, they pause rate hikes, and the market rallies.

I am currently positioning myself in TLT 0.00%↑ to play a drop in interest rates

10/20 110C. Not a large position yet. I am looking to find a better positioning to size up on. Maybe June 24 contracts.

Keep in mind that the yield curve is still extremely inverted